Predictions 2026: Uncertainty and a Bit-Conned World

In Predictions 2026: Uncertainty and a Bit-Conned World, Raj Nair presents his 18th annual global outlook, examining the economic, geopolitical, technological, and social forces shaping the year ahead. While the world economy has shown resilience despite trade tensions, tariffs, wars, and policy shocks, 2026 is set to be marked by heightened fragmentation, rising uncertainty, and declining trust—both in institutions and in everyday life.

The paper analyses key themes including global growth prospects, US trade and tariff policies, the evolving role of the US dollar, the rise of non-USD trade mechanisms, cryptocurrencies, and capital flows across emerging and developed markets. It also explores sectoral opportunities in areas such as AI infrastructure, defence, energy, metals, and financial services, alongside risks from geopolitical conflict and climate change.

Beyond economics, the note highlights a deeper challenge: the growing anxiety and loss of social capital in societies worldwide, amplified by rapid technological change and disconnection from the physical world. The paper concludes with practical reflections on how individuals and organisations can navigate uncertainty without being “bit-conned” by speculation, misinformation, or false promises.

This perspective is essential reading for business leaders, investors, policymakers, and professionals seeking clarity—and balance—in an increasingly unpredictable world.