Santosh Sreedhar, Partner and Gaurav Joshi, Consultant at Avalon Consulting, shared their views in the article “Making Hay When the Sun Doesn’t Shine,” which was published in Campaign India.
They highlighted that recurring global disruptions from geopolitical conflicts to pandemics are fundamentally reshaping consumer behavior, making shoppers more price-sensitive, value-driven, and inclined toward essential goods while reassessing premium purchases. The article explains that brands must respond by rebalancing portfolios, strengthening omnichannel presence, diversifying supply chains, and improving inventory and operational agility to withstand sudden shocks.
The global business landscape is increasingly characterized by unpredictability. From geopolitical conflicts like the recent India-Pakistan tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, to global health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, force majeure situations are no longer rare occurrences but rather a recurring challenge for businesses worldwide. These events, often beyond human control, fundamentally alter market dynamics, consumer behavior, and operational realities. For brands, particularly those in the retail sector, navigating these turbulent waters requires more than just crisis management; it demands foresight, adaptability, and a profound understanding of evolving consumer needs and supply chain vulnerabilities. This article explores how brands can not only survive but thrive amidst such disruptions, and the role that creative agencies and partners have to play in the same.
Shifts in Consumer Behavior During Uncertainty
Force majeure events trigger significant shifts in consumer behavior. During periods of uncertainty, consumers tend to become more cautious and conservative in their spending. Price sensitivity increases, and there’s a discernible shift towards essential goods. The demand for mass-market essential products often spikes as consumers engage in hoarding behavior, seeking security in stockpiled necessities. Conversely, non-essential items and luxury goods face demand pressures as discretionary spending is curtailed, or delayed. Premium brands, especially those with readily available lower-priced alternatives, are particularly vulnerable as consumers prioritize value over brand prestige. However, this doesn’t mean an outright rejection of all premium products; rather, it signifies a re-evaluation of perceived value and a greater emphasis on utility and necessity. Beyond price, consumers also become more attuned to a brand’s societal role and ethical stance, especially in the context of the crisis situation, leading to a rising importance of purpose-led positioning.
How brands can be better prepared for the next Force Majeure situation
There are five ways in which brands can be better prepared for not only facing the next force majeure situation, but also to gain strategic advantage from such times.
- Product Portfolio Development: Having a wider product portfolio that consists of a mix of essentials and non-essentials can help to continue engaging with customers, and retaining toplines even in situations where demand disruptions arise.
- Omnichannel Strategy: An omnichannel approach ensures that businesses are not solely dependent on one channel and can leverage all operating channels to reach customers, whether through online sales, click-and-collect, or diversified delivery options.
- Supply Chain Diversification: Over-reliance on single-source suppliers or limited geographical regions proves disastrous during disruptions. Brands can actively diversifying their supplier base, exploring near-shoring or re-shoring options, and investing in localized production capabilities.
- Inventory Management: The pandemic highlighted the risks of just-in-time inventory systems, such as when supply disruptions in micro-processors affected the automotive industry worldwide. Brands with high risk of supply chain disruptions, should adopt a more balanced approach, incorporating strategic stockpiling of critical components or finished goods to buffer against sudden disruptions.
- Enhanced Agility: Setting up a product development and manufacturing back-end that is flexible and agile to switch between different product lines will help to take advantage of such situations by shifting focus on manufacturing those products whose demand spikes during such situations. For eg. the unprecedented speed at which pharma companies such as Pfizer and Moderna developed effective COVID-19 vaccines showcased remarkable agility and scientific prowess.
- Developing a purpose-led positioning: In times of crisis, consumers look beyond mere transactions; they seek reassurance, stability, and a sense of shared values. Consumers are increasingly willing to support brands that align with their values, even if it means paying a slight premium. The luxury fashion house Balenciaga made donations and actively used its platform to disseminate information about the Ukraine-Russia conflict, demonstrating a clear purpose-led positioning that resonated with a socially conscious audience.
Role of MR, Advertising, Media & PR Agencies during Crisis
Force Majeure situations are also testing times for creative Agencies and other partners involved in managing customer perception and demand generation for the Brand. When demand is subdued, Ad Agencies and MR partners have to play an important role to quickly understand consumer sentiments and help drive the Client’s crisis response. A change in mind-set is required in the creative team to switch focus from long-term brand-building campaigns to those that drive immediate consumer response while still being consistent with the brand image. This will often need quick decision-making, and hence the ability to manage various stakeholders at Client organisation to navigate the decision-making process will be important. The campaigns also have to be driven by an understanding of the changing media habits of consumers during the crisis period leading to use the right channels for communication where media planning agencies have a key role. While keeping focus on short-term marketing ROI, it is also the role of the Agencies to ensure that consumer responses are tracked closely so that business impact can be measured in real-time, and corrective actions can be taken immediately. It is also important for the Agencies to ensure that in the attempt to ride on current trends around crisis situation, the communication remains true to brand essence. For eg. taking sides during a war situation or campaigns that are insensitive to a tragic situation can backfire the brand. Such periods will also require Agencies to adapt rapidly to such situations so that they can continue to stay relevant for their clients.
Industry-wide cut in marketing budgets, paused retainer/ cancelled campaign were some of the common challenges faced by agencies in force-majeure situations such as the Covid 19 Pandemic. But the challenges also come with opportunities where the expectation from agencies change according to the customers changing orientations & needs. For e.g. the shift of focus from offline to online became a major pivot during COVID 19 pandemic where there was a large drop in retail spend which pushed companies to reallocate budgets to digital, social and commerce integrations which was in lines with the trend towards customer digital usage agencies.
To manage the disruptions due to such situations, agencies had to pivot their strategies and adapted to the changing market. For eg. Leo Burnett invented a new “0-3-6 Survival Strategy” as a short-term strategy for its clients to navigate through the Covid-19 challenges which gave a better purpose and direction for their employees, while also delivering value to their clients. Ogivly on the other hand, focused on crisis communications focusing on information & shifting to service led communication. Their “Steering Brands Through COVID-19” guidance became internal playbook material for many clients where the idea focused on shift to an inclusive engagement with customers and making sure that there’s an intersection between a brand’s purpose and an issue they can credibly step up to.
Agencies also focused on a more hyperlocal, personalized creatives to suffice the situational needs. E.g. Cadbury Celebrations in Diwali delivered region-wise tailored ads and gifted ad-spots to thousands of small retailers which targeted on combining brand empathy with hyperlocal media. PhonePe’s “Unstoppable India” style campaign focusing on message communication helped to lift brand sentiment during constrained markets, agencies paired national-tone creative with digital amplification to maintain category share even effecting the tight budgets.
Overall, these situations test the times and act as major pivots in reshaping the Client-agency environment. Flexible contract terms, changing customer needs, client expectations, stakeholder management approach, adaptation to changing market are few parameters over which this relationship is reshaped & a direction for further engagements is laid.
Conclusion
Force majeure situations, while disruptive, serve as powerful catalysts for innovation and strategic evolution. For brands, the ability to navigate these periods successfully hinges on a proactive and adaptive approach. By understanding shifts in consumer behavior, strategically responding across premium, mass, and value segments, embracing purpose-led positioning, and recalibrating supply chains and channel strategies, brands can transform moments of crisis into opportunities for growth and deeper connection with their stakeholders. The lessons from past disruptions, from the global conflicts of WWII to the recent pandemic, underscore a fundamental truth: resilience is not merely about weathering the storm, but about emerging stronger, more agile, and more relevant in a world where the sun doesn’t always shine. Creative Agencies and partners have an important role to help the client navigate such situations which requires them also to change the way they operate to deliver meaningful outcomes for their clients.
